Will vs Going to (Predictions) (B1)

1. What Is a Prediction?

A prediction is a statement about something that will happen in the future.

Predictions can be:

Based on evidence now — something we can see or notice that shows what will happen.
Based on opinion, experience, or belief — no immediate evidence, just what we think.

Quick check

Can I see or identify evidence now? → use (be) going to.
Is it my opinion, belief, or guess? → use will.

Sometimes both are possible. The choice shows whether the speaker is presenting evidence or a personal prediction.

Examples

Evidence-based: “Look at the clouds! It is going to rain.”
Opinion-based: “I think people will live longer in the future.”

2. Going to for Predictions

Use going to for predictions when there is evidence now (something you can see/know in the present) that makes the result very likely.

Form	Structure	Example
positive	subject + am/is/are + going to + base verb	“That cup is going to fall.”
negative	subject + am/is/are not + going to + base verb	“The sky is clear. It isn’t going to rain.”
question	am/is/are + subject + going to + base verb?	“Is that shelf going to fall?”

Examples:

“Be careful! That cup is going to fall.” (You can see it tipping.)
“The glass is sliding off the table. It’s going to break.” (Evidence: what we can see now.)
“The match just ended and everyone is cheering — they’re going to celebrate tonight.” (Evidence: the cheering.)

Tip: Focus on present evidence → future result.

The negative forms are isn’t going to, aren’t going to, and I’m not going to. In these forms, isn’t/aren’t/I’m are contractions of is/are/I am; going to is not a contraction.

In informal speech, people often say gonna: “It’s gonna rain.” Use it only in informal speech, not in standard writing.

Use will + base verb or am/is/are + going to + base verb.

❌ It will to rain. → ✅ It will rain.
❌ It is going to rains. → ✅ It is going to rain.
❌ It will going to rain. → ✅ It will rain. / It is going to rain.
❌ It going to rain. → ✅ It is going to rain.

3. Will for Predictions

Use will for predictions based on opinion, belief, or assumption, not on what you can see now.

Form	Structure	Example
positive	subject + will + base verb	“I think she will win.”
negative	subject + will not + base verb	“People won’t live on Mars soon.”
question	will + subject + base verb?	“Will our team win?”

In predictions, will is commonly contracted after a pronoun: I’ll, you’ll, he’ll, she’ll, it’ll, we’ll, they’ll. Won’t is the contraction of will not.

“I think it’ll rain tomorrow.”
“I’m sure she’ll succeed.”

Examples:

“I think it will be a great day tomorrow.” (Opinion)
“People will travel to Mars in the future.” (Belief or general prediction)
“I’m sure she will succeed.” (Confidence, no evidence right now)

Compare certainty: I think she will win. (my confident prediction) / She may win. (possible, but less certain).

Use probability adverbs to show how sure you are. Put them after will and before won’t:

“It will probably rain.”
“He will certainly win.”
“They definitely won’t come.”

Tip: Use will when you are giving your own prediction/guess (often with phrases like I think / I expect / I’m sure), even if you feel confident.

4. Comparing Going to and Will

The same future event can use either form. The speaker’s reason for the prediction changes:

Context	Present evidence → going to	Opinion or belief → will
rain	“Look at those dark clouds. It is going to rain.”	“I think it will rain this afternoon.”
a race	“Maya is far ahead. She is going to win.”	“The race starts tomorrow. I think Maya will win.”
health	“He looks pale. He is going to be sick.”	“I think he will be fine.”
a queue	“The queue is getting longer. We are going to miss the film.”	“I think we will get seats.”

The choice between will and going to depends mainly on evidence now, not only certainty.

In written or broadcast forecasts, will is common even when there is evidence: “Temperatures will fall tonight.”

Quick check

Try one question now

Look at those dark clouds! It rain very soon.

Check your answer when you are ready.

5. Extension: Showing uncertainty with may/might

Use may or might when you want to present a future event as possible rather than certain.

“It may rain later.”
“It might snow next week.”

May and might often have the same meaning. Might can sometimes sound slightly less certain or more tentative, but this is a tendency, not a fixed certainty scale. Context and the speaker’s tone also affect the meaning.

6. Time Expressions and Evidence Now

Both forms can be used with neutral future time expressions:

tomorrow, next week, soon, later, in the future

Choose going to when you have present evidence and will when you are giving an opinion:

“It is going to snow next week.” (Evidence)
“I think he will win the race next week.” (Opinion / guess)

Expressions such as any minute, in a second, and any moment now often describe something immediate that you can see happening, so they usually favour going to:

“The bus is coming round the corner. It’s going to arrive any minute.”
“Watch out! That box is going to fall in a second.”

This page focuses only on predictions. Use will for a spontaneous decision (I’ll answer the phone) and going to for a prior intention (I’m going to start a course) in the separate future-forms lesson.

7. Summary

Going to → prediction presented as based on present evidence or visible signs.
Will → prediction based on opinion, belief, or assumption, no evidence now.
May / might → a possible prediction; might is not always less certain than may.
Both can be used with future time words: tomorrow, next week, soon, later.
The choice between will and going to is mainly about evidence versus opinion, not a simple certainty scale.